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May could lose majority in election: YouGov projection

May could lose majority in election: YouGov projection

The criticism usually attaches to YouGov, which was founded in 2000 by two Conservative activists, Stephan Shakespeare, a onetime spokesman for Jeffrey Archer, and Nadhim Zahawi, who quit in 2010 to become a Conservative MP.

Dudley North, a Labour-held seat which the Tories could take, is a narrow Labour win, the model finds.

Those figures are from the model's central estimate, which acknowledges a large range of variation. Labour was predicted to win 257 seats, up from 229 at the last election.

It is hard to say, with any study merely a guide ahead of the big day.

The study, which entailed thousands of interviews with a panel of participants over a week, was the same approach used by YouGov to gauge sentiment about the referendum on withdrawal from the EU.

The model is based on 50,000 interviews, which YouGov says allows them to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the European Union referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.

A good night for the Tories could see Mrs May's party pick up 345 seats - a net gain of 15 but still well short of the kind of majority she would have hoped to secure following the decision to go to the country.

What has the reaction been to the YouGov projection?

UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party may not win an overall majority of seats in parliament on June 8 if the most recent poll is right.

Irving's 42, LeBron's 34 pushes Cavs past Celtics in Game 4
We've just got to get back to, like I said, being physical, bringing the physicality and having a defensive mindset. He also had five turnovers. "He's human, so he's going to have a night like this", said Cavs coach Tyronn Lue .


Some have seen these polls showing single-figure leads as some kind of secret Tory plot created to convince Tory voters that there is a real danger that Corbyn is knocking on the door of Downing Street to maximise their turnout.

How trusted are the polling companies?

London's blue-chip index fell from record heights and the pound bounced back as conflicting General Election polls led to choppy trading on the financial markets.

But sterling reversed course in the afternoon, after a poll from Kantar showed the Conservatives' lead over Labour had stretched to 10 points, up from eight points in its previous poll last week.

The inquiry cited unrepresentative sampling with over-representation of Labour voters and under-representation of Tories as contributing to the polling failures.

According to YouGov, the model correctly forecast the Brexit referendum result a year ago, and said that although Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote in the USA presidential election, the electoral college result was too close to call.

What could influence the vote on June 8?

But the firm also allowed itself a huge margin for error, following weeks of polls showing a strong Tory lead amid widespread predictions of a landslide.


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